Farmers’ perception of climate change and variability in the North-East District of Botswana

L C Bosekeng, K Mogotsi and G Bosekeng

Department of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agricultural Development and Food Security, P O Box 10275, Francistown, Botswana
lbosekeng@gov.bw

Abstract

In order to adapt to climate change and mitigate its negative effects, it is important that farmers perceive changes in climate and appreciate the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper contributes to understanding climate change awareness, impacts and possible coping strategies or adaptation measures among small scale farmers of North East District, Botswana. Data collection was done through mixed methods approach, comprising of questionnaire survey and focus group discussions from a total of 167 farmers selected using a stratified random sampling design. The findings revealed that all the interviewed respondents had heard about climate change through different sources of communication. Farmers attested to the fact that they were aware of the changing climate through key indicators such as increasing temperatures (92.2%), delayed rainfalls (96.4%) and a shift in onset of rains (98.8%) leading to drought, decreased agricultural yields and land degradation. Farmers employed several strategies in response to climate change, and these included the use of drought tolerant and early maturing crop varieties (73.1%), crop diversification (50.3%) and supplementary feeding for livestock (41.9%). Nevertheless, majority of the respondents (55.7 %) cited lack of capital as the main barrier to effective adaptation, followed by agricultural pests (52.1%), drought (51.5%), human-wildlife conflict (46.7%) and lack of inputs (44.9%). It is recommended that the agricultural sector needs to build farmers’ adaptive capacity, knowledge and practices through climate smart interventions to enhance resilience of rural livelihoods.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, climate smart agriculture, coping strategies, farmers’ perception

Introduction

Climate change and climate variability pose great challenges globally. Although there are many catastrophic events as a result of climate change, more devastation is expected to be on agriculture (Smit et al 1996: Parry et al 1999: Cline 2007) mainly because agricultural production is sensitive to weather and extremities. Climate change and climate variability negatively affect crop distribution and production mainly through reduced crop yields (Adams et al 1998: Jones 2003: Thornton et al 2008: Scherr et al 2012). An increase in temperatures due to climate change lowers milk capacity of animals, decrease meat production and reproductive efficiency (Moreki and Tsopito 2013: Sejian et al 2016). Setshwaelo (2001) highlighted that as pasture productivity is reduced by dry spells which result from climate change, production of livestock will also be affected. Ultimately, as crops and livestock are negatively affected, livelihoods are threatened as the majority of population entirely depend on rain fed agriculture.

Since Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability, Botswana is no exception as large proportion of the population resides in rural areas where agriculture offers employment opportunities and plays a major role in food security. Other than cultivation of crops, Botswana depends on livestock production and beef as a major source of foreign exchange in the agricultural sector (Darkoh and Mbaiwa 2002). Climate models predict that by 2050, Botswana will experience increase of temperatures by 2⁰C to 2.5⁰C, subsequently, frequent heat waves and severe longer droughts (Tadross et al 2005: IPCC, 2007: GOB 2012: Nkemelang et al 2018). At the same time, challenges of flooding may be experienced in the northern areas due to heavy rainfall. Food security and developments are being constrained by existing climate change stressors such as water unavailability, land degradation, desertification as well as loss of biodiversity. All these stressors impact on Botswana’s agriculture-dependent livelihoods. It is thus important to sustain the agricultural sector to enhance resilience among rural communities and ensure food security.

Farmers’ perception of climate change is a crucial aid to adaptation (Mustafa et al 2017). According to Oettle et al (2014), adaptation to climate change includes activities that prevent or lessen the negative potential impacts to society of changes to the climate. This could include things like building flood-proof bridges (infrastructure), land use planning regulations, introducing drought relief measures for farmers and changes in the way people live and use resources, e.g. the use of drought and heat tolerant varieties of crops. Pelling (2011) points out that adaptation is something that keeps on changing. Successful adaptation will not only contribute to development, but will also reduce the risks to which people are exposed and minimize damages and losses that they may suffer in future as a result of climatic impacts.

The study therefore sought to understand the perception of farmers on climate change with regard to crop and livestock production in the North-East District of Botswana. This would enable identification of agricultural production impediments as well as attendant coping and adaptation strategies to enhance resilience under a changing climate.

Materials and methods

Study area

The survey was conducted in the North East District, Botswana, which is located between the vast Central District on all sides except the east, where it borders Zimbabwe. The District is made up of four (4) agricultural clusters (namely Masunga, Mapoka, Moroka and Tatisiding), whereby each cluster is made up of extension areas covering sixteen (16) villages. The area is semi-arid, with highly variable rainfall averaging 430mm annually and dominated by major woody plant species particularly Colophospermum mopane. The soils are classified as haplic lixisol, a typical sodic type and characterized by clay. Major water sources include Ntimbale, Shashe and Dikgatlhong dams with ephemeral rivers including Tati, Shashe and Ramokgwebana. Small scale agriculture is the dominant livelihood strategy in the study area, involving seasonal cultivation of rain-fed crops such as millet, maize, sorghum, groundnuts and melons. In addition, the limited communally-owned rangelands bordering fenced private ranches accommodate livestock such as cattle, goats, sheep as well as donkeys which are kept for sustenance (Madzonga and Mogotsi 2014).

Data collection

The study targeted farmers practicing rainfed arable, horticulture and pastoral farming. The data collection tool (questionnaire) was pre-tested on 25 September 2018 in two villages (Gulubane and Matenge) within the targeted District. This was done in order to address problems associated with the average time required to fully administer the questionnaire as well as train the team on proper interpretation of questions, approach and communication. Local authorities (Dikgosi, Village Development Committees and Farmers’ Committees) were sensitized about the survey on 16 and 17 October 2018, prior to conducting the actual survey. A stratified random sampling design was used, with the input of agricultural demonstrators in the respective study areas. Subsequently 167 farmers were selected and interviewed face to face starting on 23 October 2018 to 15 November 2018. In addition, four (4) Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted across the District (Ditladi, Makaleng, Nlapkhwane and Moroka villages). Each FGD comprised of 20 farmers, Farmers’ Committee representatives, Village Development Committee members as well as Extension Officers.

Data were collected on socio-economic characteristics of respondents, climate change awareness, key indicators, impacts and adaptive responses as well as other stressors experienced by the community.

Data analysis

Data were coded and captured in Excel for descriptive analysis (frequencies) and presented in tabular and graphic form.

Results and discussion

Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents

Studies have shown that personal characteristics such as gender, age, education and experience in farming influence people’s perceptions of climate change (Omari 2010: Akinyemi 2017). The socio-economic profile of the respondents is as reflected in Table 1. Farming was the major economic activity in the area since less than 25% of the farmers have other off-farm sources of income (e.g. remittances, pension, informal employment, brewing and selling traditional beer etc). This reflects the importance of agriculture in the study area, with 74.3% having been engaged in agricultural activities for more than 10 years prior to the study.

The study sample was dominated by respondents who did not belong to any farmers’ association or organization (68.3%), while 74.9% had no access to credit funds. Of the few who had access to credit funding, 24.6%, were loaned mostly by registered non-government institutions (about 70.6% respondents) while 29.4% were funded by the government through subsidized programmes such as Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agricultural Development (ISPAAD). The majority of the respondents (77.3%) were staying 20km or less from the Extension Officer which entails that they easily accessed services and critical agricultural information. Sampei and Aoyagi-Usui, (2009) argue that farmers’ perception of climate change can be influenced by access to extension services and mass-media while farm size, access to markets and credit availability were also found to be important determinants of adoption in Africa (Maddison, 2006). It was evident from the sample data that maize despite its low yields due to heat and moisture stress, was the prevailing crop being grown by respondents followed by sorghum and millet respectively, while the main horticultural crops were rape, butternut, pumpkin, onion and tomato respectively (Figure 1a and 1b).

Figure 1. Rainfed (a) and horticulture (b) crops grown by respondents according to preference

The study further indicates that 73. 6% of the respondents grew crops and kept livestock, majority of them being goats (80.2%) followed by cattle (58.8%), donkeys (33.1%) and finally sheep at 13.2%, while only 26.4% did not own livestock. The proportion of livestock numbers indicates that most of the respondents kept livestock at a small scale as shown in Table 2. This is typical of the area under study as most keep livestock for subsistence purposes. Water sources for livestock varied from community dams (39.7%) to streams, boreholes and wells at 25.7%, 20.6% and 14.0% respectively. Only 40.4% of surveyed farmers grew fodder for their livestock in a field not exceeding 5 hectares, further demonstrating the infancy stage of fodder production among Botswana’s small scale farmers. The most commonly grown fodder was lablab purpureus (94.9%) as also highlighted by Madzonga and Mogotsi (2014) in an earlier study in the same District. In addition to growing fodder, respondents also supplemented their livestock on an adhoc basis and they mostly used Dicalcium Phosphate, drought pellets and other mineral licks.

Perception of farmers on climate change

Analysis of the data showed that farmers clearly perceive climate change. Respondents indicated that they had heard about climate change primarily through radio and television broadcasts as the main source of information, at 62.3 and 52.1% respectively. These findings show the important role of media in communicating climate information to farmers. The same findings were reflected by Akinyemi (2017). Digital media seems to be accessed by a growing number of farmers and thus targeted messages can better be relayed to farmers. The sustainability of agriculture as the main source of livelihood was perceived to be under threat due to detrimental long term changes in the mean rainfall and temperatures over the past 20 years (99.4% of the respondents). Ninety-two percent (92%) of the respondents perceived that it has become warmer. When asked about changes in rainfall, 96.4% of the respondents indicated that it has become drier because of late rainfalls, while 98.8% observed a shift in onset of rains from September to November and even December in some years. Shift in onset of rainfall (or change in seasons) in other regions of Africa was also highlighted by Lema and Majule (2009) in Tanzania and Mtambanengwe et al (2012) in Zimbabwe. Local perceptions by farmers with respect to changes in increasing rainfall variability are closely related to empirical analysis of rainfall trends (Figure 2) using data obtained from meteorological stations in the study area (Francistown and Masunga).

Figure 2. Rainfall variability for Francistown (a) and Masunga (b) areas over the past 30 years

In a study on Botswana, Batisani and Yarnal (2010) reported a drying trend supporting climate projections of a decrease in rainfall events and increased rainfall variability in the future. The farmers also perceived that due to changes in rainfall and temperatures, there has been some changes in drought frequency, with droughts occurring more frequently (75.1%) and with increased intensity/severity (71.5%). Flooding was also observed in some areas by respondents though less frequently than droughts and less intense. A similar trend was observed in the south eastern part of Botswana by Kgosikoma et al (2018) where farmers observed that the mean temperature, number of hot days as well as drought frequency had increased while mean rainfall and number of rainfall days had decreased. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of the respondents also noted changes in rangeland condition (Figure 3) over the years. Changes noticed included decline in herbaceous and soil cover as well as increase in deforestation in some areas, which are key indicators of rangeland degradation.

Figure 3. Changes noticed by respondents on rangeland condition

When asked about causes of climate change, most participants cited some social and cultural influences as having an impact on climate change. They reported that burning of fossil fuels in industries such as mining produces harmful gases (greenhouse effect) that makes the earth warmer. The increased use of automobiles was also perceived to generate harmful gases into the atmosphere. It was also reported that deforestation, probably because of economic benefits (e.g. selling of firewood) was a major contributor to land degradation leading to strong winds and soil erosion. Some participants cited neglect and abandonment of traditional culture and beliefs as also contributing to causing climate change. One farmer was quoted saying, “ Farmers nowadays store seeds in plastic bags which is a taboo in our tradition as we used to store seeds in weaved traditional baskets, and this will cause the heavens not to open up for rains to come down on earth ”. Another elderly respondent mentioned that “ Nowadays some people just randomly cut down certain tree species such as Mokgalo ( Ziziphus mucronata) which causes strong windstorms when cut ”. Traditional practices such as praying to ancestors (Ngwale) asking for rains were said to be no longer practiced by many and therefore causing ‘the Gods to be angry and not release rains’. Some farmers singled out modern developments such as the use of corrugated iron roofs, refrigerators, burning of refuse including old tyres as well as the use of electricity as contributing factors to increased atmospheric heat. Some even blamed the use of sophisticated scientific weather forecasting equipment such as satellites for causing climate change ‘as scientists now believe they can also do what only God can do’. Whilst they may not always know the science or reasoning behind the changes perceived, most farmers surveyed demonstrated generally good understanding of their semi-arid environment, relying on indigenous knowledge accumulated over generations.

Impacts of climate change

The farmers through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) reported that over the years in question, they have experienced delayed rainfalls, loss of biodiversity, strong winds, high temperatures and seasonal variability. These were cited as indicators of climate change. These changes have also led to low crop yield and in some cases total crop failure due to prolonged moisture stress. Other noted changes also included increased crop and livestock diseases and pests. Similar observations have been reported by Lema and Majule (2009) in a study in Tanzania. They reported that a decrease in rainfall implies increased risk of crop failure, due to poor seed germination, stunted growth, drying of crops caused by changes in rainfall pattern and amount. Sometimes this leads to re-ploughing and replanting thereby increasing production costs. For livestock, this implies decreased pasture and increased parasites and diseases due to decreased rainfall or drought. Fadina and Barjolle (2018) concurred with the findings of this study when they noted from their Benin study that 65.8% of the respondents believed climate change led to crop and livestock infestation and diseases. Their findings also revealed that 33.8% of the farmers reported that climate change is responsible for the increase in land degradation, while 87.5% reported that climate change led to a decrease in crop yields. The study conducted by Moyo et al (2012) in the semi-arid Zimbabwe revealed that the perceived climatic changes had led to changes in agricultural productivity through mostly a decline in crop production.

From the study findings, it was noted that climate change has an effect on agriculture and livelihoods. Table 3 shows that the main impact of climate change in North-East District is drought, cited by 74.3% of the respondents. According to findings of Juana et al (2014) on their study on socio-economic impact of drought in Botswana, drought generates severe problems for rural populations of Botswana. They further indicated that drought has some direct effects on both the livestock and crop production sub-sector. Drought results in livestock deaths, reduced crop yields and low pasture production (Mogotsi et al 2011a: Mogotsi et al 2013). In order to reduce the consequences of severe drought in Botswana, the government has provided programmes such as free supplementary feeding of children in primary schools (foods such as fruits, vegetables, bread and eggs) and drought relief subsidies on livestock feeds, vaccines and supplements. Heatwaves were also cited as an adverse impact of climate change by respondents. An empirical study by Moses (2017) found increased mean heatwave severity as well as increased mean number of heat wave days around Francistown This has a significant bearing on agriculture and water sectors and ultimately impacts on the country’s food security or lack thereof.

Other stressors that had a negative impact on the livelihoods of the communities in the district were mentioned. Such stressors included theft of crops in the fields as well as theft of livestock. The latter has also been identified as a challenge to livestock producers in the same district especially along the villages adjacent to Zimbabwe, which carries an added risk of transboundary livestock disease outbreaks (Mogotsi et al 2016). Additional stressors also included human-wildlife conflict partially attributed to increased wildlife following the governments ban on hunting, leading to damage of farmers’ crops by elephants, antelopes and baboons amongst other problematic animals. Conflicting policies set by the government were also highlighted as an unnecessary challenge that needed harmonization for farming communities to build resilience under a changing climate.

Climate change and variability adaptation strategies

Farmers have adopted different strategies to adapt to climate change and variability. Mustapha et al (2012) reported that adaptation to climate change is a process that initially requires farmers to perceive that the climate has changed and then identify the necessary adaptations to be implemented. It was found out that farmers in the North-East District of Botswana are using different adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impact of climate change (Table 4).

Of the farmers interviewed, 73.1% used drought tolerant and early maturing crop varieties as an adaptation strategy. The most commonly used drought tolerant crops as indicated by farmers were sorghum, millet and cowpeas with most of the varieties being local landraces which are open pollinated. Farmers believe that these landraces can withstand harsh conditions like extreme heat without being totally destroyed even though they take long to mature. As for the early-maturing varieties, farmers used hybrid seeds obtained from Extension Offices through a government subsidy programme ISPAAD. Other farmers (50.3%) practiced crop diversification probably in order to spread the risks in case some crop(s) fails. Some farmers reported that in crop diversification they also utilize the available space between rows to plant cover crops like leguminous cowpeas which in turn supply nutrients to the soil while some use it to retain soil moisture. Some farmers (44.9%) have shifted planting dates depending on the onset of rainfall. Another interesting variable relating to late rains is the use of multiple cropping or staggered planting where the same crop can be sown on different dates throughout the season in order to spread risk and minimize likelihood of total crop failure. Supplementary feeding of livestock was practiced by 41.9% of the respondents while only 24.0% resorted to mixed farming as their adaptation strategy. The farmers in North East District supplemented their livestock with sorghum and maize stover, while a few purchased feeds like drought pellets and Dicalcium phosphate (DCP) from commercial livestock feed centres through subsidized prices by government. Some livestock owners grew fodder such as lablab in order to supplement their livestock. Similar adaptation strategies were also noted among farmers in drought prone regions of Bobonong and Kgalagadi, Botswana including supplementary livestock feeding, livestock mobility and seeking alternative income sources (Mogotsi et al 2011b: Kgosikoma and Batisani 2014). The adaptation strategies from the questionnaire were as well supported by data obtained from the FGDs which indicated that farmers use the same strategies with an addition of row planting and conservation agriculture.

Barriers to effective adaptation

This study found out that majority of the respondents (55.7%) quoted capital as the main barrier to effective adaptation in North-East District (Table 5).

Farmers indicated that lack of capital is a draw back in many farming activities because it limits production capacity. They reasoned that when one has money, they are likely to overcome most other barriers limiting adaptation. One farmer was quoted saying, “ If you have money you can buy chemicals for controlling pests and diseases and you can also erect an electric fence around your field so that wildlife does not damage your crops .” The findings on capital as the main barrier are in line with Mertz et al (2008) who also found out that lack of funds, high price of basic supplies and foods and livestock theft were the main barriers towards appropriate adaptation of climate change variability in Senegal. Pests were mentioned as a second barrier (52.1%) followed by drought (51.5%), human-wildlife conflict (46.7%) and lack of inputs (44.9%). Respondents showed a concern that they are experiencing an attack of new pests and wildlife which they did not have before in the district probably because of migration of these pests from other areas due to drought. It could also be that the perceived climatic shifts could be enabling some pests and vector borne diseases to expand their geographic range. The recurrence of drought was also highlighted as a critical barrier among farmers, as their production systems are mostly reliant on rainfall. Drought is characteristic of the country’s semi arid setting and has been observed as a constraint in other Districts (Mogotsi et al 2012: Mosalagae and Mogotsi 2013). Some of the constraints, also cited by Fadima and Barjolle (2018) were institutional factors like lack of access to credit, lack of information and irregularity of extension services. Assoumana et al (2016) reported that insufficient access to inputs, lack of knowledge about other adaptation options, no access to water, lack of credit, lack of information about climate change, high cost of adaptation and insecure property rights were the main climate change adaptation constraints in West Africa. In East Africa and perhaps applicable to other semi arid regions of the world, Bryan et al (2013) argue that more support should be extended to farmers to switch from short-term coping measures in response to climate shocks and to invest in long-term, anticipatory strategies culminating in asset accumulation, livelihood diversification and the adoption of agricultural technologies that allow for increased productivity and profitability.

Conclusions

• This study unveiled impacts of climate change and variability as well as adaptation strategies and barriers to adaptation among small scale farmers of Botswana.
• It is clear that farmers are aware of change in climate as well as inherent climate variability. Understanding how farmers perceive climate change and its impacts is valuable to decision makers and technology developers such as researchers, extension service and climate information providers as it can assist in tailor-making services to suit farmers’ needs and to support farmers to better cope and adapt with climate variability and climate change.
• Going forward, farmers now need appropriate climate smart measures to further enhance their resilience and ensure sustainable livelihoods. For example, since late onset and inadequate rainfalls were some of the major challenges identified, it is hoped that technologies that enhance water-use efficiency and water harvesting techniques could also be further explored.
• The ecological and economic feasibility of some of the adaptation strategies mentioned by farmers can also be researched on and scaled-up where suitable or refined to avert maladaptation.
• Most importantly, Botswana needs to finalize its Climate Change Response Policy to mainstream climate change issues into national macro-economic and sectoral policies.

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the Department of Agricultural Research (Impala Station) for providing the resources for the survey. This study could not have been possible without the Impala team (Researchers, Technicians and Drivers) who administered questionnaires and conducted Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The Department of Crop Production helped with selection and mobilization of farmers and facilitated FGDs while the Department of Agricultural Research, Statistics and Policy Development also assisted with data collection. Finally, the authors would like to send their sincere gratitude to all communities and village leaders who contributed to this study.

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Received 18 November 2019; Accepted 9 December 2019; Published 2 January 2020

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